SOON THE REBELLION WILL BE CRUSHED AND OBAMA WILL BE ONE OF US…

There are only two paths that will see the end of the Mullahs’ stranglehold on the Iranian government. The first requires an unflappable determination by the Iranian rebels to proceed at any cost, along with a defection of the Iranian military to their cause. The second involves foreign intervention to depose the current rulers. The Iranian ruling regime is not the elected American government of the Civil Rights Era, nor the unpopular Soviet-backed Communist rulers of Eastern Europe, nor the Brits thousands of leagues from home in Twentieth Century India. They will not throw their hands up and give in because they see the inevitably of the cause, or simply tire of resisting. But the nature of the protests seems to be changing after the first week to one of measured, silent defiance which will not force the military to choose sides, thus the first option for revolution is unlikely. The second option is unwanted, by the admission of the protesters themselves. The West, particularly the United States, is despised as meddlers who make things worse wherever they stick their fingers.

What the protesters do want from us is for the World, at behest of the United States, to refuse to recognize the legitimacy of the current leadership. They believe that in a desire for legitimacy on the world stage, the Iranian rulers will cave into their desires for a more transparent, representative government. What the rebels fail to realize is that such a position is untenable…the rulers of Iran already have another path to legitimacy at the table of foreign relations, and it has nothing to do with respecting basic civil liberties.

The unfortunate truth is that the West, lead by the United States, has no choice but to treat with Iran’s ruling regime. A nation that possesses nuclear weapons--or on the verge of acquiring them—cannot be ignored or treated like a bully shouting names across the playground; particularly one that, having shown willingness to indiscriminately kill the opposition in its own country, is unlikely to have any compunctions when it comes to killing its hated enemies. The cost is too high if they aren’t bluffing. Once protected by the shield of nuclear weapons, the option of foreign military intervention in Iran is forever off the table because it would assure the destruction of Israel, in addition to threats to other Western countries via nuke-bearing terrorists supplied, financed, and supported by the Iranian government. For all his failings as leader of the United States, let alone the “Free World,” George W. Bush was not wrong in this. A nuclear Iran creates a world in which a ruling Muslim theocracy can dictate terms to the West. Only mutually-assured destruction at the hands of Israel’s nuclear arsenal will keep the Iranian leaders from stepping too far out of line.

We are past the point of no return in this. The time for playing games with recognizing or not recognizing legitimacy was thirty years ago when nearly all of Iran supported the theocracy that replaced the corrupt, Western-backed monarchy. Iran will possess nuclear weapons within a matter of years. Ignoring the current rulers because of civil injustices will not change that nor prevent them from threatening the rest of the world when they possess them. The only option available to the World is diplomacy – concessions when the Iranian government behaves well, economic sanctions and public condemnations when they do not, until perhaps one day immense social and economic upheaval—on a scale that dwarfs the current protests--brings down the current rulership.

As the rebellion peters out over the next month, word will slowly seep through Iranian society that Barack Obama, the United States, the West, even the World, are in league with the Supreme Leader and Dictator Ahmadinejad. They will see how we treat them as legitimate rulers and conclude that we seek to oppress the people of Iran through them. They will refuse to recognize that we had no choice. As brave as they have been to stand up to the current regime in the wake of the election, they will not ultimately take the responsibility for their failure to effect positive, lasting change in their own country. Don’t get me wrong, the images of Iranians, particularly the women, standing up for their right to speak their mind, to be friends with whom they choose, to have a career of their choosing, to have their vote counted and opinions represented in their government—they are, and should be an inspiration to anyone who believes that these are fundamental liberties granted by God to all of humanity. But the onus to bring about change lies with the Iranian rebels alone. What I see though is a society that has been bred and brainwashed into blaming the West, both rightly and wrongly, for their failures. The Green Rebellion will be no different.

The spirit of the rebels will eventually be crushed, freedom of speech and the media further repressed in a country that in some ways was more modern than any in the region in those regards. Rules that prevent protests will be enacted and enforced over the next decade until the will of those that remember this week is broken. Personal privacy will be thrown out the window because of a need to protect the state…and the faith. This is Iran’s destiny. It is the price of not being willing to see a revolution through to the end at any cost. In an unfortunate way this should be a source of appreciation for the dedication to and price paid for freedom by the democratic leaders of the West in the Eighteenth through Twentieth Centuries—by people who believed that death was preferable to living a life of oppression under the thumb of unjust rulers. For all the faults of the West, for whatever one thinks of our hypocrisy and greed, that is something we got right. Iranians, Chinese, North Koreans, Burmese, if you ever want your day to come your dedication to your cause must be no less than American Patrick Henry:

“Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty, or give me death!"